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Demographic problems and their significance in the country's economy. Population aging for objective reasons. Current demographic situation in Russia

As a result of market reforms and transformational changes carried out in recent years, dramatic changes have occurred in the living conditions of the Russian population, which significantly affected the psychological and physical behavior of people, including the birth rate.

Thus, a demographic problem arose in Russia, which left a certain imprint on the standard of living of the population, which has significantly transformed in recent years.

The main reduction factors are:

A rapid decline in the income level of a certain part of the population;

A significant proportion of the poor with a rather vague definition of the poverty level;

Significant levels of unemployment coupled with non-payment of wages;

Destruction of the social sphere.

All of the above facts affected the well-being of the population. The problems in Russia were marked by a natural decline followed by a cessation of population growth, which led to its decline. Thus, the formation of an ineffective model of internal and external migration can be traced.

In Russia, it was the result of the use of “shock therapy,” which led to a drop in citizens’ incomes, and hopes for their recovery in the next decades are low. Thus, based on historical data, it was only in 2002 that the population reached the 1997 level.

The main factor in the twofold decline in the standard of living of Russian citizens in comparison with 1991. is the inadequacy of wages. Due to its significant reduction, wages ceased to fulfill the following functions:

Reproductive (not ensuring even the simplest reproduction of a citizen’s labor force);

Economic (does not stimulate increased productivity and quality of labor);

Social.

The demographic problem in Russia indicates a very low consumer level of the population. Statistics confirm this. Thus, average food costs make up about half of the total expenses of Russian families. Moreover, in other countries this figure does not exceed 30%. It should be noted that all this happens in the presence of enormous resources.

The demographic problem in Russia begins in 1992. In that year, the mortality and fertility curves crossed, and it is not yet possible to detect signs of significant improvements.

Of course, Russia's demographic problems are influenced by a similar situation in other countries. For example, in many countries there is a significant decline in the birth rate, which in the near future may lead to a slowdown in population growth. However, the demographic problem in the world is determined not only by a decrease in population growth, but also by such factors as the climatic characteristics of the regions, the state of their external environment, social and economic living conditions.


In China this is called an inverted pyramid. Historically, families here formed an imaginary pyramid of three children, two parents, and one surviving grandparent, as life expectancy in the country was low. However, thanks to the “one child” policy, the pyramid has long been inverted. In some cities across the country, families look completely different: three grandparents, two parents, and only one child. And this turned out to be not only a demographic problem - and this problem is not unique to the Middle Kingdom.

Population aging for objective reasons

The oppressive dictates of the state have led China to an extreme example of population aging, with a sharp increase in the proportion of people aged 65 years and older. However, this phenomenon is observed everywhere today to one degree or another. Once a society begins to prosper, people live longer. And they no longer need children just because in old age someone needs to take care of them. New features of society appear - having become more prosperous, people grow more selfish and there are fewer of them.

Such demographic trends occur in all societies, regardless of their religious or cultural norms. And even in the Middle East, where to this day one of the highest birth rates, its first signs can be seen today. For English-speaking and European countries, the situation is further aggravated by the post-war so-called “baby boom”, a surge in birth rates, which has now led to a gigantic demographic bulge with a huge number of people of pre-retirement or retirement age.

Complete disadvantages

It would seem like a triumph of human development. But no - older people need to be supported more, they spend less, although, as a rule, this group of the population is richer than young people. However, they pose more problems for public policy and trade.

Well, for finance, of course, this is a disadvantage - costs for healthcare and pensions, and during the demographic crisis this is accompanied by a decrease in the number of working-age population, that is, taxpayers. For commerce, this can be both a curse and a source of new opportunities.

Thus, according to European analysts, the purchasing power of the baby boomer generation will be $15 trillion by 2020. This is a huge and largely untapped market for analysts, even outside the health and social care sector. Today's people over 65 years of age are active and willing to spend a lot of money. Therefore, the problem of business is to get this money.

Those who don't want to spend money

And this is a real problem, a reluctance to consume, although there is such a possibility. Try telling your aging father that he needs a new suit, complains one British businessman. In response, most likely, you will hear that there is no point in this, because he will die soon anyway. These are the trends - as people age, they work less and spend less.

In its most extreme form, the demographic problem manifested itself in Japan, where it was aggravated by the process. Yes, there are many reasons for Japan's economic malaise, but poor fertility is high on the list. To some extent, the Land of the Rising Sun has become a victim of its own success - the connection between a rapidly aging population that prefers to save rather than spend, and the problem of lack of domestic demand is obvious. Something similar awaits Germany and most of Europe.

Tragedy or prospects?

The worst thing is that the actions taken by governments do not have much effect. In addition, many of the boomer generation are approaching retirement age without savings, but with debts. In some places they tried to solve everything by abolishing the retirement age or increasing it, but this only emphasized the issues that arose.

And it turns out that demography has become an incomprehensible social problem that business cannot yet solve. Commerce is good, but we need to develop new markets. And more and more businessmen are coming to the conclusion that rich older people are just their clients. And maybe even this is one of the few opportunities to make economies grow.


Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution
Higher professional education
"Russian Vocational and Pedagogical University"
Art Institute
Branch in Omsk

CHECK WORK No. 1
Discipline: "Economics"
Subject: " Economics and demographic problems »

Performed:
student of the Om group - 318S ID
Checked by: L.F. Smotrova

Omsk 2011

INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………. 3
1. DEMOGRAPHY IS THE MAIN NATIONAL PROJECT OF RUSSIA….. 5
2. WAYS TO EXIT THE “DEMOGRAPHIC HOLE”……………………….. 8
3. MIGRATIONS………………………………………………………………... 11
4. EMIGRATIONS……………………………………………………… ………… 13
5. NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA……………………………………………………………………………………… …………. 15
CONCLUSION…………………………………………………… ……………. 20
LIST OF REFERENCES…………………………….. 21

INTRODUCTION

“Demographic problems of Russia” - solving such problems is one of the main tasks of Russia today. The demographic disadvantage of our country is very relevant today.
In general, demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction in the socio-historical and social conditionality of this process. Throughout the history of Russia, the authorities hid the demographic truth from their own people. Before the “Khrushchev Thaw,” demographic statistics were classified as “Top Secret,” and only from the late fifties began to be compiled into documents marked “For official use.” From then until 1985, information on the population, the number of births and deaths was provided only in special publications, but data on life expectancy, infant mortality and the number of abortions were never published anywhere. And it’s clear why: it is the life expectancy and mortality rate of the population, the child birth rate and infant mortality rate, as well as the number of abortions per 100 women that, like nothing else, reflect the essence - the state of the state.
Today, the most important and one of the most painful issues for our people - the development of the demographic situation - has been brought up for consideration by the People's Government.
It is absolutely indisputable that the state of demography in our country is in a deep systemic crisis. All recent trends indicate that it is growing and getting worse. The situation is so serious that recently we have increasingly heard statements that Russia has already passed the so-called point of no return, and it will no longer be possible to restore the population.
And although we, Russians, categorically disagree with this point of view, one cannot help but notice that the state of demography poses a direct threat to the existence of our country. If current trends are not reversed, there will simply be no one to live in the country and produce its national wealth. And this is not a question of the distant future, but of the coming decades.
The importance and significance of the demographic problem is recognized by all states. In a finite space, population growth cannot be infinite. Stabilization of the world population is one of the important conditions for the transition to sustainable environmental and economic development.
I chose this topic for my essay because I consider this problem to be the main one, the problem on which other global problems and the future life of all mankind depend.
The purpose of the essay is to consider the current demographic situation in the world as a global problem, a demographic problem in Russia, as well as ways out of the “demographic hole.”

1. DEMOGRAPHY IS THE MAIN NATIONAL PROJECT OF RUSSIA

The current crisis is the fourth in the country since the beginning of the twentieth century. However, it should be understood that its causes are qualitatively different from those that led to the previous three. After all, the two most severe demographic failures in Russia occurred during the First and Second World Wars - that is, during the time of colossal and irrevocable human losses on the battlefield.
Today our country is not at war with anyone. And the main reason for the current demographic crisis is that over the past 15 years the country has been pursuing a socio-economic and political course that is absolutely alien to the national-state interests of the country and the interests of the Russian people.
This means that demographic problems can only be solved by comprehensively solving the country’s main socio-economic problems. In other words, by creating the most favorable conditions for the lives of people in Russia.
What are the current demographic problems in Russia?
This is primarily a low birth rate, which has long been unable to ensure even simple reproduction of the population. Moreover, over the past 15 years it has decreased by almost 30%.
Secondly, this is the extremely high mortality rate of Russians. Its level is 1.6 times higher than in developed countries. Male mortality is 4 times higher than female mortality. Infant mortality also remains extremely high in our country – it is more than 1.5 times higher than in Europe.
Thirdly, this is the low life expectancy in our country. According to this indicator, Russia has dropped from 35th place in the world, which it occupied in 1975, to 142nd place currently. This is the level of Iraq and Honduras, below only the countries of Africa and Oceania.
All together this leads to a general decline in the population in Russia. Over the past 15 years, we have lost about 5 million people, or 3.2% of the population. Currently, the country's population is declining annually by almost 700 thousand people.
And even official forecasts in this matter are not at all reassuring - by 2050, the population of Russia may decrease to 77 million people, which is 2 times less than the current level.
Among other acute demographic problems, the following should be noted:
- a noticeable decrease in the share of children and youth in the population structure;
- growth in the share of citizens of retirement age;
- more than twofold increase in the number of disabled people over the past 13 years;
- an increase in the share of migrants, including illegal ones, whose relations with the local population often develop as conflictual, and at times downright hostile.
Meanwhile, according to various estimates, from 1.5 to 6 million illegal migrants currently live in Russia, whose situation is often simply unbearable. Their unresolved problems pose a direct and real threat to social and political stability in our country.
As a result, the consequences of the demographic crisis for our country look very alarming.
First. Russia owns 13% of the world's territory, but our share of the Earth's population may decrease to 1% by 2050.
But even at the beginning of the twentieth century, the inhabitants of the Russian Empire made up 8% of the world population.
Second. Three quarters of the territory of our country today are actually uninhabited spaces.
There are 13 thousand settlements in the country without inhabitants and almost the same number where less than 10 people live.
This situation is particularly dangerous for the border regions in the east of the country, where the population density in the adjacent regions of neighboring states is 100 or more times higher than the Russian population density. This means that we risk simply losing these territories.
Unfortunately, this list goes on and on.
However, I would like to dwell in more detail on the steps and actions that urgently need to be taken to immediately correct the demographic situation in the country.
First of all, in Russia there is no single method for solving the demographic problem. It is possible to ensure the growth of the nation only in a complex manner, raising both the economy and the social sphere, as well as qualitatively developing the infrastructure in the country.
In other words, no one can order Russian women to give birth to ten times more healthy children, or for older citizens to live at least 100 years.
But the government can, should and is obliged to create the necessary conditions for this.

2. WAYS TO EXIT THE “DEMOGRAPHIC HOLE”

First. Since deteriorating health conditions are one of the main causes of excess mortality among Russians of all ages, a high-quality modernization of the entire healthcare system in the country is needed.
And here it is necessary to start by stopping the ongoing medical reform and changing its direction by 180 degrees. The reform that has been going on since 1997, in fact, has not produced a positive result. On the contrary, during this time many indicators have only worsened. For example, the overall incidence increased by 16%.
Second. This is an immediate solution to the housing problem throughout the country. It is impossible not to notice that the lack of adequate housing directly inhibits the birth rate, especially among young people.
The country must create an effective mortgage system that is accessible to everyone who wants to purchase their own home. Its terms must be understandable to people and beneficial to them.
Third. This is a change in the income distribution system for all Russian citizens. The main task is a significant increase in the income of every Russian family. In fact, the country needs a new social policy. After all, poverty and misery remain the worst enemies of the bulk of Russian families. And if a mother has nothing to feed one child, will she think about having a second one, not to mention a third?
The country has all the necessary resources and capabilities to solve this problem.
After all, it is obvious that the same meager benefits for the birth of a child and caring for him practically do not compensate for the real costs of parents. An example of little Iceland, where the government pays absolutely fantastic for us 25 thousand euros for the first child, 50 for the second and 75 for the third. As a result, this country firmly holds the leadership in the birth rate in Europe.
Fourth. This is a change in the course of state economic policy that impedes the normal development of the nation.
Fifth. It is necessary to revive the traditions of a healthy lifestyle in the country. Indeed, today the completely opposite situation is observed everywhere. Drunkenness and alcoholism have become widespread phenomena, especially in rural areas. In Russia, two thirds of men and more than a third of women smoke. The number of children smoking is growing alarmingly; in high school, more than 20% of teenagers systematically smoke. According to various sources, more than 4 million residents of Russia have tried drugs, and 2.5 million use them constantly, of which 76% are young people under 30 years of age.
Sixth. It is necessary to suppress crime, restore the moral foundations of society and, first of all, the value of human life.
After all, today we have an almost universal irresponsibility of both the state and the citizens themselves for their lives and the lives of those around them.
Thus, we have more suicides than even intentional murders. The suicide rate in our country is more than twice the world average.
There continues to be real chaos on the roads in the country. Every year, a number of citizens equal to the population of a small city die in traffic accidents.
Deaths and injuries at work and at home remain extremely high.
The inability of the state to suppress terrorism and organized crime and the inculcation of the cult of force and violence through the media have an extremely negative impact on the moral and psychological state of society.
Naturally, the presented list of measures and actions to overcome the demographic crisis is not completely exhaustive.
However, if the presented six main positions are implemented, then this will be enough for a radical change in the development of the demographic situation in our country: from the deepest crisis to the normalization of the situation and the gradual revival of the nation. And if we start to act immediately, then by 2050, the population of Russia, according to scientists, could grow to 160 million people.
It seems that this indicator should be included as a minimum goal in our main national project of Russia - a steady increase in the number of its healthy, prosperous and happy citizens!

3. MIGRATIONS

We all know about such a phenomenon as migration - population movement.
Large population movements were observed during the war years and in the early post-war years. Thus, in 1941-1942, 25 million people were evacuated from areas threatened by occupation.
In 1968-1969, 13.9 million people changed their permanent place of residence, and 72% of migrants were of working age. In recent years, the flow of population movement has been rural-to-urban migration.
Thus, due to migration from rural areas to urban areas from 1970 to 1983. the rural population decreased from 105.7 to 96 million people, or by 8.9%, and the share of the rural population in the total population of the country decreased from 44% to 35%. This trend continues actively today.
The total volume of population movements to a new place of residence is quite large.
The impact of migration on population development is often ambiguous. The growth of population mobility is an important factor in the development of society and helps to improve the cultural and social level of people. Without migration, in the past it would have been impossible to develop the country's economy, develop the natural resources of Siberia and the Far East, etc.
However, excessive migration from the village leads to the creation of age and gender disproportions and a shortage of young people, which makes it difficult for the development of agriculture and the rapid development of new technology.
A large outflow of young people leads to a decrease in the birth rate in villages and an aging population. On the other hand, the arrival of large masses of young people from villages to large cities creates an additional burden on urban services and complicates the solution of the housing problem.
The movement of the population to new areas of the country is often associated with the solution of other problems. It is important that people not only come to areas of new development, but also stay there to work and live for a long time. After all, it takes at least six months for a person to gain experience working in new conditions. In other words, there is a problem of “survival” of new settlers. Otherwise, when a person, after working for a short time in a new place, moves back, society suffers significant economic and social losses.
Thus, modern migration trends are quite diverse, and their study is an important task of demography as a science.

4. EMIGRATIONS

During the years of reforms, the number of Russian citizens decreased by 6 million, but the total population did not decrease by the same amount. Over 3 million people from neighboring countries joined Russia. The migration process obscured the picture of natural population decline in Russia. In 1997, the population of Russia was 147 million people, in 2000 - 145 million. According to this indicator, it ranks sixth in the world after China (1 billion 209 million people), India (919 million people), the USA (216 million . people), Indonesia (195 million people), Brazil (159 million people), but by 2050 Russia will be surpassed in numbers by Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Zaire, Iran, Mexico, Vietnam, and the Philippines.
The vastness and unpopulation of Russia attracts the attention of many countries. The negligence and mismanagement of Russian spaces is constantly pointed out.
In 1989, 8 million people lived in the entire Russian Far East. As a result of the outflow of residents in subsequent years, its population amounted to 6.4 million inhabitants on January 1, 1997. The population density in the Far East is only 1.2 people per 1 sq. km. The northeastern province of China, Heilongjiang, with its center in Harbin of two million, is home to 33 million people. In the province of Girin, located to the south (at the latitude of Vladivostok), the population density is 300 people per square meter. km. The rapidly growing population of the three provinces of Northeast China is approaching 100 million people. The population density here is 127 people per 1 sq. km, almost 30 times higher than the average in the four constituent entities of the Russian Federation located along the border - the Jewish Autonomous Region, the Amur Region, the Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories.
In the summer of 1992, the Russian border was opened to Chinese labor. In particular, empty agricultural lands began to be developed, agricultural colonies were created, and some took low-paying, hard jobs. Since the beginning of 1994, the Russian government unilaterally ended the “open border” policy and introduced a visa regime for the entry of Chinese citizens. But their penetration into our territory continues. New Chinese cities have appeared along the Russian border, focused on the economic development of Primorye, Transbaikalia, and the Amur region. Russia's weakly protected border with China is increasingly less able to contain the demographic pressure of its southern neighbor.
In the former Soviet republics, 25 million 300 thousand people found themselves cut off from Russia. Russians and over 11 million. citizens of other nationalities who considered Russian their native language. From 65 to 75 million residents of the post-Soviet space were caught in political conflicts outside their national entities, and about 50 million more people found themselves united in ethnically mixed families. The outbreak of wars in Tajikistan, Abkhazia and Chechnya has already forced hundreds of thousands of people to leave their places of permanent residence. The first 10 million people left and are in poverty. Every year another million are added to them. They travel away from “hot spots” to the Rostov region, Krasnodar and Stavropol territories, and the Moscow region.
Not everyone succeeds in obtaining refugee or forced migrant status. By 1995, 670 thousand people were registered in Russia, of which 580 thousand (86%) came from neighboring countries.
The population of states near the southern borders of Russia - Central Asia and Azerbaijan - is growing exponentially (doubling every 23-25 ​​years). In 1995, the annual natural population growth in Turkmenistan was 2.14%, in Tajikistan - 2.28%, in Uzbekistan - 2.34%, only from 1990 to 1995 the population of the latter increased from 20 million 515 thousand to 22 million 785 thousand people.

5. NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA

I would like to start this point with the words of former Russian President V.V. Putin. in a message to the FSRF.
« ...And now about the main thing. … About family. And about the most pressing problem of modern Russia - demography. The problems of the country's economic and social development are closely related to a simple question: for whom are we doing all this? ... We have raised this topic several times, but by and large we have done little. To solve this problem you need the following. The first is a reduction in mortality. The second is an effective migration policy. And the third is an increase in the birth rate. ... But no amount of migration will solve our demographic problems if we do not create the appropriate conditions and incentives for an increase in the birth rate here, here, in our own country. We will not accept effective programs to support motherhood, childhood, family support... This mechanism should be launched on January 1, 2007.»
The goal of the National Program is to ensure stabilization of the population of the Russian Federation by 2015. at a level not lower than 140-142 million people. ensuring further prerequisites for population growth.
Priority objectives of the National Program: creating conditions for increasing the birth rate, providing support for families with children; improving public health and reducing mortality; attracting Russians and Russian-speaking residents of the republics of the former USSR to immigrate to the Russian Federation; improving the balance of population settlement of the Russian Federation by region; limiting illegal immigration, especially in those regions of the Russian Federation where it can pose a threat to social stability, sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security of the country; formation of a system for ensuring state demographic and family policy.
The estimated period for the implementation of the National Program is 2006-2015. Stage I - 2006-2010 (formation of an appropriate organizational and legal framework, implementation of the proposed measures of the National Program in full); Stage II - 2011-2015. (implementation of the proposed measures taking into account the results of the implementation of stage I).
Principles for the implementation of state demographic and family policy in accordance with the National Program.
State policy in accordance with this National Program is implemented on the basis of the following principles:

    ensuring the sovereignty of the Russian Federation in independently determining the paths of the country's demographic development;
    the priority of measures aimed at the permanent population of the Russian Federation over measures to use external migration in solving demographic problems;
    differentiation in approaches and implementation of demographic and family policies, emphasis on creating incentives for the birth of a second and subsequent children in the family in the system of measures to stimulate the birth rate;
    the priority of attracting Russian and Russian-speaking residents of the republics of the former USSR - representatives of peoples historically living on the territory of the Russian Federation, to immigration to the Russian Federation in the complex of immigration policy measures of the Russian Federation;
    ensuring a balance of the rights of immigrants legally arriving in the Russian Federation and settling on its territory with the rights and legitimate interests of citizens of the Russian Federation, taking into account the geopolitical, demographic and socio-economic interests of the Russian Federation in terms of resettlement and employment of legal migrants, arrangement and use of social infrastructure ;
    a differentiated approach to the reception of various categories of migrants in accordance with the strategy and guidelines of the socio-economic and demographic policy of the Russian Federation, in order to ensure the migration flows necessary for the state.
Implementation principles
The phasing of the implementation of this National Program, which provides for the development of a plan of relevant activities for the first stage (2006-2010).
A decrease in the second stage (2011-2015) of the share of the federal budget in the financing structure of the National Program to 50%, with an increase in the share of expenses from the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities, as well as extra-budgetary funds (with the main load (up to 90 %) financial support of the National Program for the federal budget of the Russian Federation at stage I).
Territorial differentiation of the implementation of state demographic and family policy in order to cover, first of all, the constituent entities of the Russian Federation with the most unfavorable demographic situation with these measures.
Constant feedback, quarterly, starting from 2008, adjustment of control actions within the framework of the National Program based on information obtained as a result of operational monitoring of the effectiveness of the implementation of the National Program.
Uniting and coordinating the efforts of state bodies, as well as local governments and the public, aimed at implementing this National Program.
Conditions without which it is impossible to fully achieve the set goals, but which go beyond the scope of this National Program.
This National Program does not duplicate or replace existing National projects and federal target programs in the field of healthcare, education and housing affordability, the current activities of state and municipal institutions of healthcare, education and social protection, but only strengthens certain areas in the context of achieving the goal.
Therefore, the conditions without which it is impossible to fully achieve the set goals, but which go beyond the scope of this National Program, are:
    a general increase in the income and well-being of the population, including an increase in the income of low-paid professional groups, the implementation of measures to combat poverty;
    etc.................

(Quelles relations entre économie et démographie? // Problèmes écon. - P., 2003.-N2811.-P. 29-30. Published in Russian Journal "Economy" No. 2, 2004, pp. 147-150. Abstracting - P. N. Kulikova)

The relationship between demographic growth and economic development has been the subject of debate for two centuries.

In recent years, an opinion has become established regarding the causal connections between these two phenomena. Thus, a report by the United Nations Population Fund argues that the existence of large families and rapid population growth constitute an obstacle to economic development and contribute to the persistence of poverty, slowing economic growth and increasing consumption of the most disadvantaged segments of the population.

In recent years, economists have returned to the view that demographic processes play a primary role in economic development. The above-mentioned report from the United Nations Population Fund indicates, however, that the determining factor in demographics is a change in the age pyramid, and not demographic growth itself. An increase in life expectancy leads to a decrease in female fertility and birth rates, which leads to an increase in the proportion of dependents in the total working-age population. The reduction in family size also leads to an increase in women's economic employment.

As long as the labor market can absorb labor, labor productivity will increase. This creates the so-called "demographic dividend" of economic growth, which increases savings, savings and investment. Families with fewer children can devote more resources to their children's education and health, resulting in a more productive workforce.

Various options for demographic growth and its changes over time are the most important factors in economic development.

Economic growth slows down during the first and last phases of the demographic transition, when the youngest and oldest cohorts of the population reach their maximum numbers. "Demographic dividends" appear only in the middle phase and only once. Low levels of fertility in the long term lead to a relative increase in the number of older people, which increases the dependency ratio (the ratio of people of retirement age to working age).

However, the economy and society do not receive “demographic dividends” automatically. Fair policy choices - namely, introducing flexibility in the employment market, stimulating investment and savings, providing benefits for education and health care - remain the main condition for ensuring high labor productivity of the economically active population.

“Demographic dividends” have become the main component of the “economic miracle” in the countries of Southeast Asia (SEA). In the 1950s, these countries had an average of six children per woman, compared with two today. As a result of the decline in the birth rate, the share of the economically active population increased from 57 in 1965 to 65% in 1990, which was four times the increase in the number of dependents. By some estimates, the “demographic dividend” accounted for about a third of the growth in per capita income during this period.

Latin American countries, on the other hand, have failed to take full advantage of this phenomenon. Despite favorable demographic conditions, per capita income on average increased from 1975 to 1998 by only 0.7% versus 6.8% in Southeast Asian countries. This happened as a result of poor political choices. Research suggests that average per capita income growth could double if the region were more trade-intensive.

Thus, as experience shows, developing countries entering the demographic transition phase have the only chance to benefit from the “demographic dividend.” Dependency ratios in SEA countries are projected to peak in 2015 and 2025. The richest countries in Latin America are ending their demographic transition, but their poorer neighbors will be in a demographic transition that will not peak until 2020-2030. (p. 30).

In sub-Saharan Africa, only 11 countries will reach their peak dependency ratios before 2050, but their fertility rates will not fall sufficiently. The rapid increase in deaths due to AIDS will also affect the expected changes in the age pyramid. Once the demographic transition is complete and the demographic dividend has been received, countries will face the next major challenge: the need to support and care for the elderly population.

Economic demography occupies an important place in the system of demographic sciences. Economic demography examines the relationship between economic development and population reproduction. Economic demography studies the relationship between economic development and population reproduction, the economic consequences of various types of this reproduction, and the influence of the nature of demographic processes on the structure and proportions of economic growth.

The population is the basis and subject of social production, the most important factor of economic growth. All aspects of the economic activity of a society are associated with the population. The population plays this role, first of all, because it serves as a source of labor resources, the total labor force of society - the bearer of scientific and technical knowledge and production experience, practical skills and labor skills.

Population and economy are two subsystems that are closely interconnected. The economy is created by man, it is the result of his physical and mental efforts. Each person, while improving production, does not always think about the fact that at the same time he is improving himself. Moreover, each new step in scientific and technological progress requires the next step along the path of human improvement. In the process of development of production and the economy, the person himself improves, and he, in turn, improves the economy. Man is the creator of the economy; he, his mind and hands are the determining conditions for its further development.

The first attempts to develop scientific problems in the field of economic demography date back to the 19th century. All the main studies of that time, which examined the interdependence of economic and demographic processes, were to one degree or another based on the concept of factors of production by A. Smith, the work of D. Ricardo, J. S. Mill. At the end of the 20s of the 20th century, the American scientist A. Hansen considered the possibility of a negative impact of a decrease in population growth on the economy. According to his calculations, at least half of all capital investments made during the 19th century were associated with population growth.

In 1930 J. M. Keynes, and in the second half of the 20th century a number of scientists (A. Landry, A. Sauvy, J. Bourgeois-Pichat, L. Apry - France, S. Kuznets, A. Cole, K. Boulding - USA and etc.) turned to the problems of the relationship between the dynamics of production and population. These problems were studied in relation to economically developed countries through the prism of such concepts as the population optimum, investments in human capital, the input-output ratio, and the dynamics of the capital-product ratio. A permanent or growing population has been put forward as one of the factors necessitating the expansion of the public sector to increase the efficiency of private capital (J. Galbraith, USA).

In relation to developing countries, economic and demographic problems were studied based on the concept of the pressure of a rapidly growing population on the economy with limited investment resources (G. Myrdal, Sweden).

Modern models of the functioning of the population-economy system, regardless of the degree of their size, disaggregation and territory coverage, are based on an approach in which the processes of population reproduction are considered by groups of countries, distinguished by such quantitative characteristics as the volume of national income or gross national product, material resources, food per capita, number of calories consumed by one resident, etc. In the 80s Large complex models of regional development and the theory of multi-status tables were developed.

Demographic processes affect the economy primarily through changes in the size and age-sex structure of the working-age population. In the following diagram, we consider the population structure according to the degree of working ability:

Rice. Population structure by degree of working ability

Labor resources are persons of both sexes who could potentially participate in the production of goods and services. They are of particular importance in a market economy, since they integrate categories such as the economically active population, including the working and unemployed population of working age.

The number of labor resources is determined based on the population of working age and working people beyond working age.

The economically active population is the part of the population that offers its labor to produce goods and services. "Economically active population" can have 2 meanings depending on the length of the period to which it applies. If the economically active population is determined for a short period of time, equal to a week or a day, then the active population in a given period is meant, to which the term “labor force” is also applied; if for a long period, then the usually active population is meant.

The currently active population (or labor force) is the most commonly used indicator of the size of the economically active population. The economic activity rate of the population is defined as the ratio between the size of the economically active population and the total population of the country:

Ke.ak. = P e.ak. R i ,

where R e.ak. - the number of economically active population on the i-th date;

P i is the total population on the i-th date.

The economically active population includes two categories - employed and unemployed. Working or employed persons include persons of both sexes aged 16 years and older, as well as persons of younger ages during the period under review:

  • a) performed hired work for remuneration, money or were paid in kind, as well as other income-generating work, independently or with partners, both with and without the involvement of hired workers, regardless of the timing of receipt of direct payment or income for the entire activity.
  • b) were temporarily absent from work due to: illness or injury; days off; annual leave; various types of leaves, both with or without pay.
  • c) performed work without pay in a family business.

The concept of “employment” is directly related to the concept of “production boundaries”, since the system of national accounts (CIS) determines that persons who participate in the creation of goods and the provision of services within the boundaries of production should be considered employed. This approach to determining employment allows for a joint analysis of employment and production indicators.

Based on data on the size of the employed population and the economically active population, the employment rate can be calculated:

Kzan. = (Ti Rec.ac.) x 100,

where T i is the number of employees on the i-th date.

The employment rate is calculated both for the population as a whole and by gender and individual age groups of the population.

The unemployed include persons 16 and older who, during the period under review:

  • a) did not have a job;
  • b) were looking for a job;
  • c) were ready to start work.

When classifying a person as unemployed, all three criteria listed above must be taken into account.

To characterize the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate is calculated:

Kbezr. = (Bi Rec.ac.) x 100,

where B i is the number of unemployed on the i-th date.

If the numerator is the total number of unemployed, then the unemployment rate is obtained according to the ILO methodology, and if the numerator is the number of officially registered unemployed, then the officially registered unemployment rate is obtained.

The economically inactive population is the population that is not included in the labor force (including persons younger than the age established for recording the economically active population). The economically inactive population is defined as the difference between the total population and the labor force, it is measured in relation to the survey period and includes the following categories:

pupils and students, listeners and cadets of full-time education (including master's and postgraduate courses);

old age pensioners, on preferential terms and persons receiving disability pensions;

persons engaged in running a household, caring for children, etc.

persons who have stopped looking for work, having exhausted all possibilities for obtaining it, but who are able and ready to work;

other persons who do not need to work regardless of their source of income.

Data on the economically inactive population is also developed by gender, age groups, level of education and other reasons. Comprehensive information about the economically inactive population is an important and necessary part of information about the labor market, since, on the one hand, there is a constant transition of part of the population from the state of the economically active population to the economically inactive population, and on the other hand, part of the population is constantly joining the economically active population.

The peculiarity of the relationship between economic and demographic processes is that this connection is dynamic, which implies the presence of a correlation dependence. This means, for example, that an increase (or decrease) in the standard of living of the population does not lead to the same degree, with one sign or another, to a change in the number of births or deaths. But only to maintain the existing standard of living under a given population reproduction regime, it is necessary to allocate funds from the country’s national income.

Expert estimates show that with an average annual growth rate of a stable population, the annual share of demographic investments (determined only by the influence of the demographic factor) in the country’s national income is 0.57%, with a population growth of 1% - already 5%, with a growth of 2% - 10 %.

Changes in the intensity of the processes of mortality, fertility and migration cause differences in the ratio of the number of people of working age and those of non-working age. The more people, all other things being equal, are disabled per person of working age (the so-called demographic burden), the more efficient the labor of the population must be to maintain at least the previous standard of living.

One of the theoretical approaches that allows us to show the impact of population growth rates on economic development is the calculation of the so-called demographic investments, i.e. economic costs directly related to the need to provide employment for a growing population and its consumption. Among the promising methods of economic and demographic research, it is necessary to highlight economic and demographic accounts, which are essentially a combination of the methods of national accounts and inter-sectoral balance. This approach allows us to show the relationship between economic and demographic factors, including the influence of birth and death rates on the development of the sectoral structure of production, the level of employment, etc.

Among other economic and demographic problems, the problem of a general indicator characterizing the degree of measurement of the economy under the influence of demographic processes and structures should be noted. This kind of meter should show in what proportions it is necessary to change the growth rate of population consumption and the amount of investment: either by increasing the efficiency of use of capital investments, or by reducing the rate of population growth, i.e. proportions of distribution of national income into consumption and accumulation funds.

In recent decades, among the methods of economic and demographic analysis, methods for calculating the average working life expectancy (AWL) have been developed. The subject of research here is the patterns of reproduction of the labor potential of a generation, i.e. economic and demographic aspects of the involvement of the human factor in production. economic demography policy indicator

In the last 20-25 years, in developed countries with market economies, a direction of applied demographic research has been rapidly developing, called demography - research on population in marketing and business. Demographics studies the population and households as potential consumers of goods and services, and demographic changes as one of the main factors influencing consumer markets and implementing market segmentation.

In connection with this, information about fluctuations in needs depending on gender, age, lifestyle, values, and income level is currently becoming very valuable. One of the first successful attempts at clustering was the system developed by Jonathan Robbin of Clarites in the 1970s. Using 535 socio-demographic and economic indicators characterizing the population, Robbin obtained 40 types of homogeneous groups (clusters), each of which then received a catchy and “telling” name from the author. The current cluster system of the company "K" PRISH is divided into 12 groups with its own complex structure, the final block of which is a mono-consumer group. (At the top of the ranking according to life styles are “noble property owners,” “money bags,” “intellectuals”; at the bottom are “Hispanic mix,” “on welfare,” which in America make up 11% of the population).

For businesses, clusters provide an opportunity not only to optimally locate an enterprise aimed at an individual or family consumer, but also to reduce the cost of advertising goods.

Taking into account the demographic characteristics of consumers, focusing on a specific segment of the consumer market, divided by demographic characteristics, is a requirement of modern production.

Most often, socialists are given the task of conducting a sample survey and analyzing its results. Therefore, the number of companies where researchers are engaged in forecasting the number and structure of potential consumers is 49%. The third most important task - 43% - is to determine the share of the population that buys the company's products. About 33% of firms conduct specific research assessing customer demographics. In addition, demographers often participate in the development of new products and plans for their promotion on the market, in determining the rational placement of consumer points of companies across the territory, in research into the personnel composition of the company itself.

Demographic factors in marketing affect the connections of the marketing environment when characterizing consumer markets and consumer purchasing behavior, as well as when studying the principles of market segmentation. One of the basic principles of market segmentation in marketing is demographics.

The global demographic explosion should be taken into account by entrepreneurs when determining a long-term strategy for behavior in the market. Among the demographic changes in Kyrgyzstan that entrepreneurs should take into account: a decrease in the birth rate in recent years, the relatively young age of the population, changes in family and marital relations, migration shifts, structural changes in employment and the labor force.

With the gradual restoration and expansion of economic potential, which is structurally and technologically, organizationally and institutionally updated, dynamic and effective, attention to human development will increase. In this connection, of particular interest is the definition of an integrated indicator - the human development index as recommended by the UN since 1994. methodology (UN Human Development Report). In the Kyrgyz Republic, with the assistance and funding of the UN, they have been carried out since 1995. National reports on human development, and in 1996. the concept of sustainable human development was adopted.

The HDI calculation is based on the following input data:

  • 1) life expectancy (years);
  • 2) literacy of persons aged 15 years and older (%);
  • 3) number of years of education of persons aged 25 years and older (%). Cumulative share of students in primary, secondary and higher education institutions (%);
  • 4) Gross domestic product per capita taking into account purchasing power parity (international dollars). Based on the basic data, the following are determined:

life expectancy index using the following formula:

index of achieved educational level:

income index. And then the integrated index.

Assignment to the topic:

What does economic demography study?

Explain the diagram, the structure of the population according to the degree of working ability.

Economically active and inactive population.

Basic indicators of economic demography.

Explain the concept of "Demographics".

Task 1. At the beginning of the year, the population of the region was 420 thousand people, the share of the working age population - 58%, employment rate of the total population - 570.0%o. During the year: 9.5 thousand people entered working age, of which 0.4 thousand people. 7.6 thousand people started working and were involved in the national economy. Over retirement age; 4.5 thousand people left the working population of working age due to the transition to old-age pensions, 0.6 thousand people stopped working; people of older working age and teenagers under 16 years of age stopped working; Of the employed population, 2.4 thousand people died, of which 1.9 thousand people were of working age.

Determine at the end of the year:

Working age population

Number of employed population.

Natural growth rates of the working-age population and the employed population.

Task 2. In the region, the average annual population was 2.5 million people. Including those under working age - 0.2 million people.

Define:

Replacement rate for the working age population

Coefficient of total and pension burden on the working-age population.